Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
